The Trump-Saylor Crypto Carnival: A Market Story Worthy of the Big Screen

Donald Trump’s election victory didn’t just shake up the political scene; it supercharged the speculative frenzy engulfing U.S. markets. If this year were a movie, Trump might be the co-star, but the lead role undoubtedly belongs to Michael Saylor, the self-appointed high priest of Bitcoin. And let’s be real: Saylor is thriving in his role.

Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, isn’t just betting on Bitcoin—he’s all in. His company now holds an eye-popping $40 billion in the cryptocurrency, a sum that makes most hedge funds look like piggy banks. His Bitcoin advocacy has made him a folk hero among day traders, as MicroStrategy shares have surged an eye-watering 500% this year. The company’s meteoric rise has also given birth to a golden age of ETFs tracking its every move, and Saylor has become one of the go-to names in the convertible bond market, having raised $6 billion. If volatility were an Olympic sport, Saylor would already have a gold medal.

The Trump effect and Saylor’s audacious bets have created a perfect storm for Bitcoin, which is up a jaw-dropping 130% this year, cruising past the $100,000 milestone. To put that in perspective, Bitcoin was trading at $16,500 just two years ago. Today, ETFs are scooping it up, hedge funds are building complex strategies around it, and the government is under pressure to consider holding Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Bitcoin-denominated loans have tripled in demand, showing that crypto is no longer a fringe idea but a central part of the financial conversation.

MicroStrategy and the Nasdaq 100: A Volatility Love Story

The next chapter in this high-stakes drama could unfold on Friday, when the Nasdaq 100 announces its annual reshuffle. There’s heavy speculation that MicroStrategy might earn a coveted spot in the index. Inclusion would cement its status as a mainstream player, but let’s not forget what kind of wild ride investors are in for. MicroStrategy’s 90-day volatility stands at over 100%. By comparison, Tesla’s is 68%, Nvidia’s is 49%, and the average for the Nasdaq 100 is just 30%. Investing in MicroStrategy is like choosing a roller coaster over a carousel—and then doubling down by riding it blindfolded.

Why does this matter? Well, $451 billion in ETFs globally track the Nasdaq 100, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. If MicroStrategy is added, millions of portfolios—both institutional and retail—will automatically hold its stock. Whether or not these investors are fans of Bitcoin or even know who Michael Saylor is, they’ll have skin in the game.

Historically, inclusion in a major index has often led to a boost in a company’s stock price. For example, Tesla gained nearly 70% in the six months following its inclusion in the S&P 500. If MicroStrategy enjoys a similar trajectory, its already stunning 10x growth in market value this year—up to $100 billion—might just be the beginning.

The S&P 500’s Wobbling Foundation: A Tale of Two Markets

While crypto and tech enthusiasts are enjoying their champagne-soaked celebrations, the broader stock market is showing cracks beneath its record highs. The S&P 500 has notched its ninth consecutive day where more stocks fell than rose. That’s the longest streak since Bloomberg started keeping tabs on this metric in 2004. Essentially, this is a rally held together by a handful of heavyweights while the rest of the market languishes.

The so-called “Magnificent Seven” stocks—Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, Tesla, and Apple—continue to carry the market on their backs. This elite club has rallied in eight of the past ten days, fueled by AI optimism and robust earnings. Meanwhile, the equal-weighted S&P 500, which treats every stock equally regardless of size, fell 0.4% yesterday. It’s down seven days in a row, tying for its longest losing streak since 2018.

And here’s a stat to chew on: The Magnificent Seven collectively account for 28% of the S&P 500’s market cap. To compare, during the dot-com bubble of 2000, the top five stocks accounted for just 18%. In other words, today’s market is even more concentrated than one of the most infamous bubbles in history. Food for thought, isn’t it?

Bitcoin vs. the Broader Market: A Case of Divergent Realities

While traditional equities wrestle with thinning breadth, Bitcoin is thriving in its own universe. Institutional investors are warming up to Bitcoin ETFs, with Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust seeing a 45% increase in assets under management since Trump’s election. Even U.S. banks, once skeptics, are now considering Bitcoin-based financial products to meet surging demand. Goldman Sachs reports that nearly 75% of its high-net-worth clients have expressed interest in crypto investments.

But the volatility is real. Bitcoin’s average daily price swing this year is 4.7%, compared to 1.2% for gold and 0.9% for the S&P 500. For those keeping score, that’s nearly four times the volatility of traditional safe-haven assets. Yet, despite—or perhaps because of—this volatility, Bitcoin is attracting a new wave of retail investors. Data from Coinbase shows that retail transactions on its platform are up 65% year-to-date.

On the Move: Stocks Making Waves

While Bitcoin and tech dominate the headlines, other stocks are making quieter moves. RH, the luxury furniture retailer, saw an 18% jump in premarket trading after raising its revenue forecast for 2025. It’s an impressive feat in what many are calling a “tight consumer environment.”

Not everyone is celebrating, though. Dave & Buster’s, the restaurant and arcade chain, saw its stock plummet 17% after disappointing earnings and the abrupt departure of its CEO. It’s a harsh reminder that not every company is thriving in the current market environment, even as others ride high on speculative waves.

What’s Next? Navigating a World of Contradictions

As we approach year-end, the market is a study in contrasts. On one side, you have the speculative mania around crypto and tech, epitomized by Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin bonanza and the Magnificent Seven’s AI-fueled rally. On the other, you have the broader market showing signs of fatigue, with traditional sectors lagging and market breadth deteriorating.

Whether you’re a Bitcoin believer or a stock market skeptic, one thing is clear: 2024 has been a year of extremes. And with Michael Saylor and Donald Trump driving the narrative, 2025 promises to be just as wild. Buckle up—it’s going to be a bumpy ride.