Tesla Flirts With Resistance, Rivian Flirts With Bankruptcy, and the EV Market Needs a Hug

Tesla’s Relentless Resistance: 347, the Wall of Walls

This morning, Tesla took center stage, dancing dangerously close to the $347 resistance line. It’s been teasing that level all day, like a kid trying to sneak an extra cookie from the jar. Each attempt at a breakout feels like déjà vu—close, but no cigar. Tesla’s price action is starting to look like a market-wide metaphor: there’s a lot of effort, but progress? Not so much.

Meanwhile, the rest of the market is trying to dust itself off after a rough start. Palantir, once beaten down 7%, has started to recover, while Enphase decided to join the green club, pushing back over $60. Yet, Nvidia remains weighed down, and Super Micro couldn’t keep itself above $220. The market’s choppiness feels like a sitcom where the punchlines keep getting interrupted by a laugh track.

The good news? The QQQs are hanging onto a slim gain of 0.44%, showing that buyers might finally be stepping in to buy the dip. The bad news? It still feels like everyone’s holding their breath, waiting for the next shoe to drop.

Rivian: The Cash-Burning Trailblazer

Now, let’s talk about Rivian, the electric truck maker that’s redefining the phrase "burning cash." Their most recent financials tell a story that’s equal parts drama and horror. With $6.7 billion in cash and short-term assets on the books, Rivian appears to have enough liquidity for about 12-18 months. But don’t break out the champagne yet—they’re losing $1.2 billion per quarter. Yes, per quarter. That’s like trying to fill a bathtub with a colander.

Their revenues are another head-scratcher. In the most recent quarter, they pulled in $1.34 billion—a 35% decline from last year. What’s going on? A one-time event might explain the drop, but for a company that’s trying to prove its financial viability, this is a terrible look.

And then there’s the $39,000 loss per vehicle. Yes, you read that right. For every truck or SUV Rivian sells, it effectively hands over a $39,000 gift card to the buyer. To make matters worse, their cost of goods sold (COGS) is still outpacing revenues by 42%. Last year, it was 46%, so sure, there’s “progress,” but it’s the kind of progress you wouldn’t brag about at a dinner party.

The EV Market: Toasty, Not Tasty

The broader EV market isn’t doing Rivian any favors either. Demand is tepid, competition is fierce, and consumer enthusiasm seems to have cooled faster than leftover pizza. Tesla’s rumored 2025 launch of smaller battery packs might attract budget-conscious buyers, but Rivian’s strategy of offering various battery options feels more like a desperate attempt to “populate the demand curve” than a well-thought-out plan.

Here’s the thing about batteries: most people don’t need the kind of range automakers are building into EVs. The average daily commute is 30 miles—so why are we lugging around 300-mile batteries like we’re prepping for a cross-country road trip? A smaller battery could save weight, reduce costs, and maybe, just maybe, help Rivian stop losing money on every car it sells.

Volkswagen, the Unlikely Savior

One glimmer of hope for Rivian is its partnership with Volkswagen. The German auto giant sees Rivian as a hedge against its own EV uncertainties, which means it has a vested interest in keeping the company afloat. Think of it as a lifeboat for both parties—albeit one with a lot of leaks.

Rivian’s current valuation—about 2.5 times annual sales—is low compared to its peers, but it’s not hard to see why. The company has yet to prove it can survive without external help, and its profitability metrics are, let’s say, underwhelming. Even with material cost reductions and so-called “efficiency initiatives,” Rivian’s losses are staggering.

The EV Tax Credit: A Small Win

One thing working in Rivian’s favor is the $3,750 federal EV tax credit for its R1T and R1S models. It’s not a game-changer, but every little bit helps when you’re hemorrhaging cash. Losing this credit would be another punch to the gut for a company that’s already on the ropes.

Tesla’s Role in the Drama

While Rivian wrestles with its financial demons, Tesla continues to dominate the EV space. Sure, it’s hitting resistance at $347, but the company’s fundamentals are light-years ahead of its competitors. Tesla is reportedly exploring cheaper versions of its Model 3 and Model Y, which could further squeeze rivals like Rivian and Lucid.

Here’s the kicker: even with all the challenges Rivian faces, Tesla’s success indirectly supports the broader EV market. A rising tide lifts all boats—or in this case, all electric trucks. But if Tesla’s innovations continue to outpace the competition, Rivian may find itself struggling to keep up.

Final Thoughts: Can Rivian Survive?

Rivian’s story is far from over, but the clock is ticking. With 12-18 months of cash runway and a long road to profitability, the company is in a race against time. If rates fall or demand surges, Rivian might just have a fighting chance. But if the current environment persists, it’s hard to see how they’ll avoid a reckoning.

As for Tesla, all eyes are on that $347 resistance line. Whether it breaks through or gets rejected again, one thing is clear: Tesla isn’t just the leader of the EV market—it’s the company everyone else is trying (and failing) to catch.