Powell’s Bold New Role: Job Seeker-in-Chief

Alright, folks, settle in. We just witnessed Jerome Powell’s best performance yet as… a job applicant? Usually, when Jerome’s sounding bullish, I'm all in, ready to shout, “Let’s go!” But this time, there was a hint of desperation. Three times during the press conference, he was asked whether he’d be ready to throw in the towel if pushed out, specifically by Trump. Each time, he served up a deadpan “No,” which, if you squinted, had that glint of “Please, hire me!” Still, Powell made it clear he’s holding onto his job with the same tight grip he uses to hold back interest rate cuts. Stone cold.

Powell’s demeanor screamed optimism—he spoke of a strong economy, assured us that labor market weaknesses are merely “post-COVID normalization,” and even suggested that inflation? Pfft, no big deal. It’s all under control. The labor market? Just taking a little breather. His message was clear: “Don’t worry, America, we’re doing great. Everything’s fine!” He even hinted that bond yields, which have been dancing like it’s prom night, are just the usual ups and downs. They might go up, they might go down. Who cares? Bond markets are like that flaky friend who always bails at the last minute.

And then, we got the Nippo revisions, which sounds more like a secret move in a kung-fu film but is actually data showing that consumers are saving more than we thought. Savings rates were revised up to 4.7% from under 3%, which would’ve been recession territory. “Crisis averted,” Powell said with a wink. This guy was out there spitting sunshine about the GDP too—third quarter grew by 2.8%, just like the second quarter. It’s enough to make you wonder if he’s angling for his statue on Fed Chair Mount Rushmore: “Here lies Jerome, the one who didn’t let the yield curve destroy the economy.”

During Powell’s pep talk, the 10-year Treasury yield decided to take a nosedive. Some saw this as a market nod that inflation fears were subsiding. Powell’s point was that inflation is old news. Sure, some inflation reports still show blips, but they’re all driven by “catch-up inflation” in things like insurance or rent, which he swatted away like pesky flies. Lagging data? Not his problem. His strategy seems clear: keep everyone happy with 25-basis-point cuts until, well, forever, or until the recession fairy fails to show up.

As Powell sidestepped any political minefield by staying silent on the 2024 election and Trump’s policies, he did drop that little gem about the labor market “cooling.” Translation: we’re going to ease up on interest rates—gently, though. Don’t expect fireworks. He’s on a cautious crawl to “neutral,” a position he’ll take up when inflation finally pipes down and he can nap without fear of nightmares about layoffs.

The kicker? The market didn’t blink. Going into the meeting, the chance of a rate cut in December sat at 67%. Leaving the meeting, same thing—67%. In other words, Powell showed up, passed out 25 basis points like Halloween candy, and went home without making waves. And the Treasury yields? Yep, they’re down again, rewinding everything they gained since the dawn of the Trump era. Bond yields have this love-hate relationship with inflation, which Powell reassured us is under control—oh, and remember Bill Ackman’s little bid to push yields to 5%? Powell basically threw shade, reminding everyone that within three weeks, those same yields were down by 50 basis points. He might as well have said, “I told you so.”

So what does it all mean for us mere mortals? Bears probably left grumbling; Powell’s sticking to the “all is well” script, even if some numbers say otherwise. You might wonder, is he avoiding doom-talk because he doesn’t want to jinx it? Or does he just want the record for the longest “soft landing” in Fed history?

And hey, for the bulls out there, here’s the message: get ready. Powell just handed you the market equivalent of a Christmas bonus. His positivity could spur more businesses to invest, hire, or at the very least not panic about layoffs. Imagine if he’d stood there and said, “Yeah, 2025’s going to be a dumpster fire.” Investors would’ve hit the panic button and brought that recession on faster than you can say “yield curve.”

So, in conclusion, Powell did his job, or at least what he thinks his job is—keeping us all calm, fed, and entertained for six more weeks until the next meeting. The takeaway? This isn’t a “game-changer” but a signal. If you’re bullish, grab it and run; if you’re bearish, brace for disappointment. In the meantime, Powell’s off on vacation, presumably rehearsing for his next audition as America’s financial Zen master.