Market Mayhem: Black Friday Madness, Bitcoin Reserves, and the Economy’s Latest Plot Twists

This week, the economy served up a buffet of juicy tidbits that would make even the driest financial analyst crack a smile. From Bitcoin conspiracies to Black Friday binges and bullish predictions for 2025, there’s no shortage of drama. Let’s dive into the madness, unpacking everything from what Bank of America thinks will boom, to Trump’s “strategic” crypto hoarding, and why Americans apparently need yet another air fryer.

Trump, Bitcoin, and a Reserve That’s More Strategic Than You Think

In the latest chapter of “What’s Trump Up To Now?” we’re talking Bitcoin, tariffs, and a strategic reserve that’s raising eyebrows across Wall Street and crypto forums alike. The buzz started with Nick T on X (formerly known as Twitter, but let’s be honest, still Twitter in our hearts), who questioned whether Trump’s talk of a U.S. Bitcoin reserve undermines his proclaimed loyalty to the U.S. dollar. Spoiler alert: Nick might be overthinking it.

Here’s the gist: Trump isn’t proposing that Uncle Sam go shopping for Bitcoin like it’s on sale during Cyber Monday. Instead, he’s suggesting that seized digital assets—be it Bitcoin, Ethereum, or even Dogecoin—stay tucked away in a federal crypto vault. It’s not about replacing the dollar but rather about stockpiling confiscated crypto for a rainy day. Think of it as the FBI’s version of “Antiques Roadshow,” but with digital wallets instead of dusty heirlooms.

The idea has sparked debate among Bitcoin maximalists, who love anything that makes crypto seem like the digital equivalent of gold. “Limited supply, bro,” they yell from their blockchain soapboxes. And while they’re right about Bitcoin’s scarcity, critics argue that turning it into a federal reserve asset could muddy the waters. After all, blockchain is traceable, which is both its blessing and its curse. The U.S. government might find it hard to use crypto as a reserve while keeping tabs on global transactions for security purposes. But hey, when has a little cognitive dissonance ever stopped a political move?

Black Friday: The Return of Air Fryer Mania

Let’s shift gears to the consumer world, where Black Friday sales data has rolled in like a tidal wave of receipts—and the results are, well, mixed. Overall retail sales grew by a modest 3.4% year-over-year, but here’s the catch: that’s not inflation-adjusted. After factoring in inflation, the growth barely registers. In other words, shoppers spent more, but they got less bang for their buck. Thanks, inflation.

E-commerce was the shining star, with online sales up 14.6% compared to last year. Adobe reports a record-breaking $10.8 billion in Black Friday sales, proving once again that consumers would rather click “Add to Cart” than wrestle with strangers for a discounted air fryer at Walmart. Speaking of air fryers, they were flying off the virtual shelves alongside vacuum cleaners. Seriously, America, how many air fryers does one household need? Is there an underground market for slightly-used small appliances we don’t know about?

In-store sales, meanwhile, were underwhelming. Foot traffic at major retailers like Ulta and Best Buy was flat to slightly positive, but the days of stampedes and overnight camping seem to be fading. Instead, many consumers spread their holiday shopping over weeks, thanks to early deals like October’s Amazon Prime Day. Companies like Home Depot and Target are using steep discounts to move inventory, but it’s clear the traditional Black Friday frenzy isn’t what it used to be.

Bank of America Predicts a 2025 Boom (But Not for Everyone)

Bank of America’s latest outlook for 2025 is both optimistic and slightly cryptic, like a financial horoscope for the masses. They’re forecasting a U.S. economic boom fueled by bonds, artificial intelligence, and—you guessed it—China stocks. Yes, the same China that’s currently wrestling with consumer distrust and economic slowdowns. Bold move, BofA.

Here’s the breakdown of their predictions:

1. The U.S. Boom: BofA is betting big on domestic markets, expecting the U.S. to outperform globally in 2025. They advise going long on U.S. equities while the rest of the world muddles through a potential recession. It’s like cheering for your team while the opposing side deals with an injury crisis.

2. Bonds Are Back: With Treasury yields hovering near 5%, bonds are looking more attractive than they have in years. BofA predicts that bonds could outperform stocks in 2025, offering a safer haven for risk-averse investors.

3. AI Decentralization: The MAG 7 (Meta, Apple, Google, etc.) dominated the AI narrative in 2024, but BofA sees this monopoly loosening in 2025. Smaller players in the robotics and AI sectors—like Symbotic—are poised to shine.

4. China’s Surprising Comeback: Despite ongoing challenges, BofA believes Chinese equities could see a resurgence. Whether it’s due to policy shifts, global trade dynamics, or sheer contrarian play, they suggest keeping an eye on the region.

For those looking to play this market, BofA advises a strategic pivot. Go long on U.S. equities in the first quarter, buy international stocks in Q2 after a likely correction, and keep a close watch on bond yields. If they hit 5%, it’s time to back up the truck.

Jobs Report Looms Amid Market Optimism

While we’re busy analyzing Black Friday data and market forecasts, let’s not forget the big economic event of the week: Friday’s unemployment report. Economists are expecting 200,000 new jobs, but there’s a growing sense that the labor market might be nearing a tipping point. Job openings are declining, and whispers of layoffs are growing louder, especially in struggling sectors like automotive.

Tesla’s Cybertruck deliveries, for example, are reportedly speeding up as the company clears inventory ahead of the year-end. Meanwhile, Volkswagen workers in Germany are staging walkouts over failed cost-cutting negotiations. It’s clear that labor dynamics are shifting, and this week’s jobs data could provide some much-needed clarity on whether we’re heading for a slowdown.

Geopolitical Tensions and the China Hedge

On the geopolitical front, tensions remain high as Israel and Hezbollah trade accusations of ceasefire violations. Bank of America sees this as part of a broader trend: the world’s fragmentation into competing economic blocs. They predict that this “fractionalization” will make it harder for countries to cooperate on global issues, adding another layer of uncertainty to the economic landscape.

Interestingly, BofA also mentions crypto as a potential hedge against geopolitical instability. While Bitcoin and other digital assets are typically seen as high-risk, they could serve as a counterbalance in an increasingly fragmented world. It’s a controversial take, but one that aligns with growing interest in alternative assets.

The Bottom Line: Buckle Up for 2025

Between Trump’s crypto musings, Black Friday’s mixed results, and BofA’s optimistic outlook, it’s clear that 2025 is shaping up to be a year of contrasts. The U.S. economy might boom, but global markets could falter. AI and robotics are set to transform industries, while traditional retail fights to stay relevant.

For now, the best strategy might be a mix of caution and boldness: diversify your portfolio, keep an eye on bonds, and maybe pick up that extra air fryer—just in case. After all, if 2025 is going to be this unpredictable, it’s best to prepare for anything.